Non-Fiction Post Of The Week: Larry Smith On Jose Reyes

Larry Smith usually contributes fictional pieces to The Apple but when he sent me a well thought out piece on Jose Reyes I figured I'd share.  Enjoy!

The biggest story in the NY area baseball-wise is the one surrounding Jose Reyes' future.  The latest development came on Tuesday when Jose and his agent told the Mets that they will not negotiate with the Mets on a long term deal until after the season is over.  I, by the way, don't blame them for that stance.  Certainly if they want to learn of the shortstop's true market value then they need many teams bidding on him, not just one.

Here's a link to one blogger's stance that the Mets should be looking to trade Jose right now.

http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/06/22/the-mets-really-should-look-to-trade-jose-reyes/

What I think we know is that Reyes will want something like 5,6, or 7 years on his next contract and will ask for a yearly salary of between $20 and $25 million.   I don't see the Mets being willing or able to go that far and, of course, 80% of major league teams would also shy away from this.  But like the proverbial $10 glass of lemonade, one only has to sell ONE.   I do think some team, be it Red Sox, Giants, Yankees, or even the Cardinals (if Pujols escapes) will throw that kind of money at him.

Is he worth it?  I really doubt it.

Here is who Jose Reyes is:  http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reyesjo01.shtml

Take a look at his line that reads 162 game average.  While Jose is exciting as all get out he still is a guy whose lifetime BA is in the high .270s.  He'll hit you 10-15 HRs  His walk rate isn't putrid but also isn't good.  He'll play solid defense,  SS-2 for SOM players.  He'll steal loads of bases but what the stats won't tell you is that those bases are stolen in the first half of games.  I literally can count on one hand the number of times Reyes has stolen a base that really needed to be stolen in the late innings.   As he moves thru the rest of his 20s and then into his 30s it is foolhardy to think that he can improve on his numbers.  Realistically his tendency to get injured only figures to worsen.

With all that said I do not necessarily advocate an immediate trade of Reyes or even one that comes down right at the trade deadline.  This presupposes something we can't know which is what other teams will trade for half a year of a player currently on an MVP pace.  If some team wants to offer up two or even three real legit prospects then Alderson has got to listen.  But the history of these kinds of trades usually favors the team getting the big talent.  Even sure thing prospects aren't really sure things.

The other day someone wrote that the Giants might offer Brandon Belt + Madison Bumgarner for Jose.  Then Bummy went out and had a Vin Mazzaro-like outing.  What's that all about?

If Alderson does not get a real good offer for Jose then his best move might be to wait the season out.  Enjoy the last few months of Reyes.  Then give him the best offer the Mets can afford and one that realistically projects what can be expected in the next few years.  If it's a no go (and I suspect it would be), then offer arbitration and collect the two good draft picks that will come when Reyes departs.

It should be interesting and instructive to see how the GM handles this diciest of questions.

Thanks for sharing Larry.  Your points are well thought out and interesting.  To hear more from Larry follow him on twitter @dr4sight. Unfortunately because this is The Apple, I am obligated to do something silly. Please enjoy this picture of Jose Reyes as a Predator.

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